Time Series Analysis Of Number Of Babies At Birth In Federal Capital Territory, Abuja (A Case Study Of University Of Abuja Teaching Hospital (Uath)) (#26496)

ABSTRACT

This research is about time series analysis and number of babies at birth in

Abuja, between 2000-2017 using a monthly data. The box-Jenkin autoregressive

integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was estimated and the

best fitted model is ARIMA 1,1,1 with Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of

7.580, R2 of 0.402 and with P-values of the perimeters of the model less than

0. 05. The model was further validated with L-Jung Box text with residual been

white noise. The mode was use to obtain the post sample forecast of the

numbers of babies at birth in federal capital territory on monthly bases for the

period of two years (2016-2017)