Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Logic

ABSTRACT

Load forecasting is an important component for power system energy

management system. Precise load forecasting helps the electric utility to make unit

commitment decisions, reduces spinning reserve capacity and schedule device

maintenance plan properly. It also reduces the generation cost and increases

reliability of power systems. In this work, a fuzzy logic approach for short term load

forecasting is attempted. Time, temperature and similar previous day load are used as

the independent variables for short term load forecasting. Based on the time,

temperature and similar previous day load, fuzzy rule base are prepared using

Mamdani implication, which are eventually used for the short term load forecasting.

MATLAB SIMULINK software is used here in this work for system designing and

simulation. For the short term load forecasting, load data from the specific area load control center is considered.