Nigeria exchange rate variations and economic growth: A time series study from 1990 to 2024

Abstract The study investigated the relationship between Nigeria exchange rate variations and economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to2024. It considered investment as a mediating variable and combined with Nigeria exchange rate variations with key currencies of USD, BPS, and JPY to unravel true effect on Nigeria economic growth. This is anchored on the argument that exchange rate variations affect investment which in turn contribute to economic growth. Data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was adopted. Collected data on Nigeria exchange rate per USD, BPS, JPY, capital stock (investment) And real gross domestic product were analysed using ordinary least square technique. The results show that the estimated coefficient (USD=-170.399; BPs=53.683 and JPY= 23982.854) and P-value( USD=0.006; BPS= 0.260 and JPY = 0.000) implying that Nigeria exchange rate variations with USD is statistically significant with negative relationship with real gross domestic product, Nigeria exchange rate variation with BPS is statistically insignificant with positive relationship with real gross domestic and Nigeria exchange rate variation with JPY is statistically significant with positive relationship with real gross domestic product. Taking the model as a whole it was concluded that Nigeria exchange rate variations with the key currencies significantly influence the RGDP within the period of study. It was recommended that Government should pursue serious monetary policy through sterilization and impose trade restrictions on certain goods and services from other countries where the key currencies of USD, BPS and JPY form legal tenders for exchange to ensure positive and significant contribution to economic growth of Nigeria.
TABLE OF CONTENT
Chapter                                 Title                                  Page                                               Cover page            TITLE PAGE                                  ii                                               DECLARATION                                      iii                                              CERTIFICATION                                          iv                                              DEDICATION                                           v                                              ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS                             vi                                              ABSTRACT                                           vii                                             TABLE OF CONTENT                                  viii                                              LIST OF TABLE                                          xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION background of the study1 statement of the problem2 objective of the study3 research questions4 statement of hypotheses4 scope and limitation of the study5 significance of the study5 organization of the study6 operational definition of key terms6 CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 2.1      Conceptual review 7                                                                      2.1.1    Exchange rate 7                                                                           2.1.2    Types of exchange rate9                                                              2.1.3   Causes of variation in exchange rates   10                                     2.1.4    Foreign exchange and foreign exchange Market            11                              2.1.5    Economic growth          12                                                                          2.1.6    Exchange rate policies in Nigeria            13                                                    2.2       Theoretical framework          14 2.2.1     Balance of payment theory        15                                                           2.2.2     Sterilization theory        16                                                                       2.3        Empirical review       16 2.4Gap in the Empirical Literature      24                                                                          CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 3.1   Research design      25                                                                                3.2   Population   of the study      25                                                      3.3   Source and nature of data      25                                                                   3.4   conceptual specification of model     26                                                       3.5   Empirical specification of model     26                                                               3.6   Description and measurement of variable     27                                               3.7   Method of data analysis    28                                                                       3.8   Decision rule    29                                                                                      CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS  4.1    Data presentation 30                                                                                    4.2    Analysis of empirical results 31                                                                4.3    Test of hypothesis 36                                                                            4.4    Discussion of the findings 37                                                                 
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMATIONS  5.1   Summary of the findings 41                                                                            5.2   Conclusions 42                                                                                                 5.3   Recommendations 43                                                                                     5.4   Contribution to knowledge 43 5.5 Suggestions for further studies44        REFERENCES         APPENDICES
     









LIST OF TABLES Table Title        Page 2.1 Summary of Empirical Review21 3.1 Summary of Description and measurement of the variables used28 4.1 Data  for Regression Analysis30 4.2 Descriptive Statistics results31 4.3 Statitionarity Test Result 33 4.4 Johanson Co-integration Test34 4.5Model Summary35 4.6 Summary of T-calculated and T-tabulated values35