IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1970 - 2010)

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Because of the complex link between governments spending and economic growth, both descriptive and econometric analyses are used in the study. The descriptive analysis of the study explores the relationship between government spending and economic growth in Nigeria over the period of the study.  The study also observes that from early 1970s, oil revenue became the major source of revenue earnings for the government, and government expenditure fluctuates in response to fluctuations in crude oil earnings.  Government expenditure and economic growth also fluctuate in line with the earnings from crude oil. The study uses econometric analysis to examine the impact of the various components of government expenditure (consumption expenditure, government investment, government investment on human capital) including other control variables like capital stock, labour force, and private investment from 1970 – 2010 using vector error correction (VEC) model of regression analysis. The results show that consumption expenditure depresses economic growth while government investment and private investment t stimulate economic growth. While the remaining three variables (government investment in human capital, capital stock and labour force exert insignificant impact on economic growth. The results show that the coefficients of GIt-1 and GIt-2 are 4.317 and 6.125, respectively and that of private investment (PIt-1 and Pit-2) are 5.224 and 4.219. The goodness of fit, indicated by adjusted R-Square is over 91 percent, while F-statistic is 22.86.  The study recommends that government investment spending should be judged based on social cost and benefit; that public investment should be made to enhance private investment activities; and that competent and qualified personnel should be attracted into the public service for effective and efficient execution of government development programmes.   TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page Approval Certification Dedication Acknowledgement Abstract Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures
CHAPTER ONE 1.1Background to the Study 1.2Statement of the Problem 1.3Research Questions 1.4Statement of Research Objectives 1.5Significance of the Study 1.6Statement of Research Hypothesis 1.7Scope and Limitations of the Study 1.8Definition of Terms
CHAPTER TWO 2.0Introduction 2.1Theories of Economic Growth 2.1.1Factors Determining Economic Growth 2.1.2Patterns of Growth 2.2The Nature and Constituents of Government Expenditure 2.3Public Expenditure Growth 2.4The Impact of Government Spending on Economic Growth 2.5.1Government Spending and Economic Growth in Nigeria 2.5.2Trends in Total Government Expenditure and GDP in Nigeria   2.6Structure of Government Expenditure 2.7Functional Sectorial Classification 2.8Empirical Literature 2.9Theoretical Framework
CHAPTER THREE 3.1Research Design   3.2Model Specification     3.3Estimation Procedure    3.4Data Discussions  3.5Sources of Data    
CHAPTER FOUR 4.0PRESENTATION OF RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 4.1PRESENTATION OF RESULTS 4.2INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS 4.3TEST OF HYPOTHESIS  4.3.1EXPLANATION  CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION OF RESULTS 5.0INTRODUCTION 5.1DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
CHAPTER SIX SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.0INTRODUCTION 6.1SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS 6.2CONCLUSIONS 6.3 RECOMMENDATIONS 6.4AREA FOR FURTHER STUDIES REFERENCES APPENDICES   LIST OF TABLES 2.5.1EXPENDITURE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AND GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE  2.5.2FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOURCES OF REVENUE (OIL AND NON-OIL REVENUE)  2.6.1GOVERNMENT RECURRENT AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGES OF TOTAL  2.6.2GOVERNMENT RECURRENT AND CAPITAL  EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP  2.7.1FUNCTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GOVERNMENT 4.1UNIT ROOT TEST 4.2COINTEGRATION TEST 4.3VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM),  USING NGDP AS A DEPENDENT VARIABLE
LIST OF FIGURES 2.5.1TREND IN NOMINAL GDP AND TOTAL7 GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE