Arima Model For Forecasting Of Monthly Rainfall And Temperature In The Lake Victoria Basin

Abstract

Economic activities in Lake Victoria Basin such as agriculture, sh-

ing, mining and transportation depend's heavily on the climatic

conditions of the Lake and its Basin. Global climatic change caused

by Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG) has resulted in a disruptive and

erratic weather pattern for these economic activities. This unpre-

dictable weather variations is responsible for loss of life and destruc-

tion of property. The primary cause of this negative impact is lack

of a reliable information addressing climatic variation within the

region. The main objective of this project was to identify a suit-

able time series model that can be used in predicting, forecasting

and analyzing weather variations.The Box jenskin methodology is

used to build ARIMA model for rainfall and temperature. Data ob-

tained from the Kenya Meteorological Department's Kisumu, Lwak,

and Migori for the years 2007 to 2014 produced An ARIMA (2,0,1)

model for rainfall is using R package. Data for the years 2011 to

2013 were estimated using values from the years 2008 to 2010 and

the relationship showed a strong positive relationship indicating a

high accuracy level on predictability by the model.